The growth rate of the machinery industry has fallen, but the growth momentum still exists

Benefiting from the 4 trillion policy and the impact of the low base in 2009, last year, the sales of the entire construction machinery industry increased explosively, and major construction machinery companies made a lot of money, but just after the first quarter of this year, the explosive growth The situation quickly stalled. Statistics from China Construction Machinery Industry Association show that in May, the sales of excavators experienced negative growth for the first time year-on-year, down 10% year-on-year, bulldozer sales fell 34% year-on-year, and loader sales remained stable year-on-year, but fell by more than 20% month-on-month. This is the second decline after the month-on-month decline of major construction machinery products in April.
Looking ahead, we believe that the degree of real estate regulation and credit crunch will restrict the overall trend of industry development. Since the beginning of this year, the frequent changes in national policies, especially the credit policy, have resulted in the slow progress of many construction projects, and it is difficult to obtain funds for many newly started projects. In addition, there are fewer newly started projects compared to last year. In May, the sales of excavators fell by 12% year-on-year, loaders were basically flat year-on-year, bulldozer sales fell by 34% year-on-year, forklift sales increased by 38.8% year-on-year, and truck crane sales fell by 10% year-on-year. At present, we still maintain the judgment at the beginning of the year, but there may be a chance for a correction in the second half of the year. June-July 2011 will be the peak season for affordable housing construction, followed by the peak season for water conservancy construction, which will increase the demand for construction machinery by 12-24% throughout the year.
The energy equipment and service industries benefit from the adjustment and reform of the energy structure. 1. Coal mining. In the first half of the year, as the Development and Reform Commission suspended the examination and approval of exploration rights and strictly controlled the examination and approval of new coal mines, the growth rate of fixed investment in coal dropped significantly compared with the previous year. However, as the integration of some coal mines comes to an end, reconstruction and expansion will drive a new round of investment demand. Second, the oil industry. The prosperity of the oil drilling and production equipment industry is positively correlated with oil prices and lags by 3-4 months. We believe that with the changes in the international situation and energy supply, the oil drilling and production industry will enter a prosperity cycle in 2011. The offshore engineering equipment industry is driven by both oil prices and national ocean development, and the future development prospects are promising.
After the adjustment of the railway operation map, the bidding will be launched in the second half of the year, and the demand for rail transit equipment will continue to grow steadily. In May, my country's railway fixed asset investment fell by 18.4% year-on-year, and the construction of high-speed railways slowed down abnormally. According to the investment scale of the Ministry of Railways this year of 745.5 billion, it is expected that the new railway projects will increase significantly in the second half of the year.

(Source: International Construction Machinery Network Editor: Xu Wei)